"This was always going to be a very complex campaign, and different from Midnight Hammer and Absolute Resolve, which were complex in their own right. I'm confident in our military and the leaders orchestrating this difficult fight, as evidenced by their display of overmatch in the initial phases of the operation."
"I am watching our ability to intercept both missiles and Shahed Drones. The Shahed has been a challenge and recognized concern for some time and I have written about those challenges before. The Shaheds are relatively inexpensive, have substantial range and are accurate. What I don't know is the inventory available but I suspect they are plentiful."
"I'm also watching energy flows from the region and traffic in the Straits of Hormuz. Not only does this have global economic implications, but it could also imply operational considerations if the U.S. Navy has to be used to get traffic moving."
A military expert provides personal analysis of an ongoing complex conflict, distinguishing it from previous operations like Midnight Hammer and Absolute Resolve. The expert expresses confidence in military leadership and their demonstrated overmatch in initial phases. Key concerns include intercepting Shahed drones, which are inexpensive, long-range, accurate weapons that pose significant challenges. The expert notes uncertainty about available inventory but suspects plentiful supplies. Regional energy flows and Strait of Hormuz traffic receive attention due to global economic implications and potential U.S. Navy operational requirements. Historical context regarding the Straits is referenced as relevant to understanding current dynamics.
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