Three tropical cyclones, Rae, Seru, and Alfred, are currently active in the South Pacific, coinciding with the peak of the cyclone season. This phenomenon is uncommon but not unprecedented, with a similar occurrence in January 2021. Cyclone Rae has already caused damage in Fiji, while Alfred threatens flooding in Queensland. Climate scientist Gabriel Vecchi attributes part of this cyclone activity to the Madden-Julian Oscillation, which may enhance storm development. The atmospheric fluctuations can lead to unexpected weather patterns, making forecasting challenging.
The last time three such storms occurred in the South Pacific was January 2021 when Lucas, Ana and Bina were churning simultaneously.
Gabriel Vecchi noted evidence of what's called a MaddenJulian Oscillation that seems to be tracking over the south-west Pacific, potentially enhancing cyclone activity.
The atmosphere is chaotic. There's a lot of natural fluctuation in it; we need to be open to the possibility that factors beyond our ability to predict led to these three cyclones.
Rae formed on Friday north of Fiji, bringing whipping winds and heavy rain that damaged fruit trees, according to local reports.
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