""Geopolitical crises can act as powerful catalysts for long-term system change. In this scenario, the world moves decisively towards energy independence, with lasting implications for global fuel demand and trade.""
""The scenario assumes a major geopolitical escalation beginning in early 2026, disrupting 15-20% of global oil and LNG supply. In the near term, oil demand falls by around 9% due to supply outages before recovering to pre-crisis levels by 2030.""
Prolonged disruption to Middle East energy supplies may lead to a significant structural shift in global energy systems by 2050. Oil and gas import dependence could be halved, with oil demand decreasing by 20% and gas demand by 10%. Countries are prioritizing energy security through electrification, renewables, coal, and nuclear energy, while reliance on globally traded fuels diminishes. This transition, however, may increase costs and near-term emissions due to higher coal usage before stabilizing in the long term.
Read at London Business News | Londonlovesbusiness.com
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