Washington's Venezuelan Gamble: The Old Guard's Continued Grip on Power

"Rather than triggering immediate elections as Venezuelan law, the Supreme Court declared Maduro's capture a absence, allowing Rodríguez to govern indefinitely without a popular mandate. "The regime used a legal mechanism to maintain institutional control while avoiding an immediate electoral process," Mauricio Vaquero, country coordinator for María Corina Machado's Vente Venezuela party in Colombia, tells The Cipher Brief. "The Supreme Court decided she would assume as interim president, but a Chavista Supreme Court, not the democratic legal one." In other words, the same loyalist judges who helped Maduro stay in power are now using constitutional loopholes to keep his inner circle in charge."

"Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello, still wanted by American authorities on a million bounty for narco-terrorism charges, controls Venezuela's coercive forces and armed collectives. His role in coordinating political prisoner releases illustrates the paradox of the current transition. Releases often come with severe restrictions. When opposition politician Juan Pablo Guanipa was on February 8 after eight of detention, armed men abducted him hours later. He is now under house arrest with an ankle monitor."

""They were released, they reunited with their families, until the enlightened stupidity of some politicians led them to believe they could do whatever they wanted and stir up trouble in the country," Cabello after Guanipa's re-arrest."

The Supreme Court declared Maduro's capture an absence, enabling Rodríguez to govern indefinitely without a popular mandate. Loyalist judges employed constitutional loopholes to maintain the incumbent inner circle's control rather than trigger immediate elections. The security apparatus that sustained Maduro's authoritarian rule continues operating largely unchanged, with Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello exercising control over coercive forces and armed collectives while facing U.S. criminal charges. Political prisoner releases occur under severe restrictions, and released opponents have faced re-abduction or house arrest with electronic monitoring, illustrating a constrained and contested transition of power.

Read at The Cipher Brief