US-Iran tensions: Trump has no path to an easy win' despite Tehran's woes

"Donald Trump says his goal in Iran is to win. But the United States president has no easy path to victory against an ideological Iranian governing system fighting for survival, analysts say. list of 3 itemsend of list Iran is likely to meaningfully retaliate against any attack against its central government, unlike its largely symbolic response to the US bombing of the country's nuclear facilities in June and the assassination of its top general Qassem Soleimani in 2020."

"Iran is likely to meaningfully retaliate against any attack against its central government, unlike its largely symbolic response to the US bombing of the country's nuclear facilities in June and the assassination of its top general Qassem Soleimani in 2020. A decapitation strike to kill Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other top officials may fail to collapse the regime and could lead to further destabilisation, and a protracted US war could prove catastrophic and costly for Washington and the region."

"All the options are pretty terrible, said Barbara Slavin, distinguished fellow at the Stimson Center think tank. It's very hard to know what will take place if you do A' or B'. What are the after-effects going to be? And particularly if the regime feels that its back is up against the wall, it could lash out in really horrific ways against American forces in the region, against allies."

Iran faces internal vulnerability, yet military strikes could trigger a prolonged conflict. Iran would likely mount meaningful retaliation against attacks on its central government rather than issuing symbolic responses. Attempts to decapitate the regime by killing top leaders, including the supreme leader, could fail to collapse governing structures and might intensify destabilisation. A protracted US war would be catastrophic and costly for Washington and the region. Political leaders have publicly threatened intervention if authorities kill protesters, while Iran has conducted a deadly crackdown with thousands reportedly dead and authorities imposing a total internet blackout.

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