"Goldman Sachs estimates that the oil price shock triggered by the war will suppress payroll growth by roughly 10,000 jobs per month through the end of the year, impacting sectors like restaurants and retail."
"Goldman's sector-level analysis indicates that leisure and hospitality will be the hardest-hit industry, accounting for approximately 5,000 lost jobs per month, while retail trade will lose another 2,000 jobs."
"Brent crude is expected to average $105 in March, spike to $115 in April, and could peak as high as $140 a barrel in a severely adverse scenario, affecting the labor market."
The U.S. military conflict with Iran is negatively affecting the labor market, with Goldman Sachs estimating a loss of 10,000 jobs per month. The oil price shock is expected to suppress payroll growth, particularly in restaurants, hotels, and retail stores. Brent crude prices are projected to average $105 in March, potentially peaking at $140 in adverse scenarios. The conflict's duration remains uncertain, with experts warning of regional instability and further job losses, especially in leisure and hospitality, which could see 5,000 jobs lost monthly.
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