There's an oil price scenario that would bring the US economy to a 'standstill; | Fortune

"The war has effectively blocked off the Strait of Hormuz, a vital energy corridor that links oil and gas producers in the Persian Gulf with the rest of the world. The closure has cut off the roughly 20 million barrels of oil that normally flow through the strait each day, according to the International Energy Agency. The IEA estimates the conflict is removing roughly eight million barrels daily from the global supply, making the crisis the biggest oil supply disruption in history."

"Oxford Economics uses a standard rule of thumb to estimate the economic impact of pricier oil: Every time oil gets $10 more expensive for a sustained period-determined to be around two months-it amounts to a 0.1% decline in GDP due to higher inflation and slower growth. If prices average $100 for two months, it would erase a few tenths of a percentage point of global GDP growth, but a recession would"

"Price levels so far might only have a marginal impact on economic output over the long run, according to a report published Friday by Oxford Economics, an advisory firm. But that scenario rides on a relatively quick return to pre-war price levels over the next few months. The longer the strait remains closed and the higher prices rise, the faster the economic situation around the world-including in the U.S.-deteriorates."

A conflict in Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz, a critical energy corridor through which 20 million barrels of oil flow daily. The blockade removes approximately eight million barrels from global supply, representing the largest oil supply disruption in history. Oil prices have surged dramatically, with Brent crude rising from around $70 to between $90 and $100 per barrel. While gasoline prices for U.S. drivers have increased, Oxford Economics suggests the current price levels may have only marginal long-term economic impact if prices return to pre-war levels within months. However, prolonged closure and sustained high prices could trigger significant global economic deterioration, including recession risks.

Read at Fortune