"On Polymarket, the online platform that lets people wager on almost anything, an anonymous trader somewhere in the world placed a series of suspiciously well-timed bets. Using a fresh account created last month, the individual made just a few bets in the days leading up to the raid, according to The Wall Street Journal -all on the possibility of imminent regime change in Venezuela-and appeared to come away with more than $400,000."
"Perhaps the bettor just got phenomenally lucky. Or perhaps they knew about the raid ahead of time and leveraged it for a quick payout. We can't know, because Polymarket, a so-called prediction market where people turn their idle hunches into real cash, allows some of its customers to remain anonymous. Traders place their bets using crypto, which could provide another layer of cover."
U.S. Delta Force commandos covertly entered Venezuelan airspace before a strike. In the hours before President Donald Trump's final order, someone bet over $20,000 that Nicolás Maduro would be ousted by the end of January. An anonymous Polymarket trader using a fresh account placed a few well-timed bets and reportedly won more than $400,000. Polymarket permits anonymity and crypto payments, which can obscure identities. The well-timed wager prompted speculation of insider knowledge or extraordinary luck. Similar anomalies appeared when María Corina Machado's Nobel Peace Prize odds spiked on Polymarket prior to her announcement.
Read at The Atlantic
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