The Ahmadinejad Option

At the outset of the war, the United States and Israel sought to install Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as Iran’s leader after the anticipated fall of the Islamic Republic. An air strike on February 28 in Tehran’s Narmak district targeted part of his compound. The attack was interpreted as an attempt to free him from house arrest imposed by the Iranian regime. Ahmadinejad had been consulted about the plan, but he became disillusioned after the strike. Skepticism followed from multiple groups. Some dismissed the idea due to his earlier record and controversial positions. Others argued that his later break with hard-liners did not translate into political relevance, noting his lack of an organizational support base and his absence from office since 2013.

"Reformists still despise him because he blocked them as president. The regime despises him because of his dissent. He has not held office since 2013. "It is difficult to understand how anyone could have believed that Ahmadinejad might become Iran's next ruler," the Iran analyst Raz Zimmt wrote on X, "given his complete lack of an organizational support base upon which he could rely to serve as a genuine alternative to the Islamic regim"

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