"Short term oil prices, which will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over, is a very small price to pay for U.S.A., and World, Safety and Peace. President Donald Trump downplayed Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases, suggesting temporary economic pain is acceptable for strategic objectives."
"The war's rapid spiral into greater levels of peril stoked fears that multiple worst-case scenarios could be realized. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, fulfilling a nightmare that has been feared for decades, with top oil producers unable to export crude as storage capacity fills."
"U.S. oil futures shot up 17.2% to $106.57 a barrel, and Brent crude gained 15.2% to $106.81. Prices at the pump are likely to top $4 a gallon now that oil has surged past $100 a barrel for the first time since 2022, with 80% odds of reaching that threshold."
Over a week into the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, financial markets reflect expectations of prolonged warfare rather than swift resolution. Oil futures surged dramatically, with U.S. crude reaching $106.57 per barrel and Brent crude at $106.81, marking the highest levels since 2022. Gasoline prices are projected to exceed $4 per gallon within a month with 80% probability. Stock futures declined significantly across major indices, while Treasury yields rose on inflation concerns. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, disrupting global oil exports. Persian Gulf producers have reduced output as storage capacity fills, with Iraq's production collapsing 60%. Infrastructure attacks, including desalination plants in Bahrain and Iran, compound regional instability.
Read at Fortune
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