""The situation remains fluid," analysts including Daan Struyven said in a note after the start of a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran, noting comments from Vice President JD Vance that the truce was fragile."
""Under the bank's so-called adverse view, including the reopening being 'postponed' for one month, Brent was expected to average above $100 a barrel in the second half, the analysts said.""
""Another outcome, based on a longer closure and the loss of some regional production, came with even higher forecasts, with Brent seen at $120 a barrel in the third quarter and $115 in the fourth.""
Goldman Sachs predicts Brent crude prices could average over $100 a barrel if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for an additional month. Analysts note the situation is fluid, with risks skewed to the upside. The oil market is focused on the strait, which has been closed since a US-Israeli attack on Iran. Goldman's base-case outlook anticipates a gradual recovery in Persian Gulf exports, with Brent averaging $82 in Q3 and $80 in Q4. However, if closures extend, prices could rise to $120 in Q3 and $115 in Q4.
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