
"The Opta supercomputer is firmly behind Chelsea ahead of this game, with the Blues winning 62.8% of its 10,000 pre-match simulations. Arsenal are assigned a 17.5% chance of victory, while 19.7% of scenarios saw the points shared. And going into matchday 13, the Opta supercomputer gives Chelsea a 27% chance of retaining their title, with Man City topping the pile in 71.7% of season simulations."
"The omens are good for Chelsea, who are unbeaten in their last six WSL home games against Arsenal, winning five of those (one draw), since a 5-0 defeat in October 2018 - a loss that ended a 17-month unbeaten streak in league play. The reverse fixture at Emirates Stadium, on matchday eight, finished 1-1, but the teams have never drawn both of their meetings in the same WSL campaign."
Champions Chelsea host Arsenal at Stamford Bridge in a match with major Women's Super League title implications. Manchester City sit six points clear of Chelsea and lead the season simulations, while Arsenal lie four points behind Chelsea. Opta simulations favor Chelsea to win the match and give Manchester City a strong chance of retaining the title; Arsenal have only a tiny probability of winning the league. Chelsea and Arsenal provided 11 players to England's Euro 2025 squad, increasing familiarity among competitors. Chelsea's unbeaten recent WSL home record against Arsenal and exceptional Saturday home form strengthen their outlook in the fixture.
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