"The Nationals must sign at least one new starting pitcher to this roster. They are not going to sign someone like Tarik Skubal or Framber Valdez. Sure, it is possible, but highly unlikely. Given the Nationals payroll, they will look for a player priced much more cheaply. With Blake Butera bringing analytics to the team, they will go the classic moneyball style of cheap, but effective. Eflin offers a moderately priced option with manageable expectations. He is a free agent and appears to command an AAV of $16 Million."
"A back injury limited Eflin's season to just 14 Games in 2025, and he did struggle with a 5.93 ERA. His previous form suggests great output that would slot him as a mid-three ERA pitcher. If the Nationals feel comfortable with his health, he can be negotiated down the cheaper and provide a great 2nd or 3rd rotational arm. Eflin works an array of breaking pitches with an elite BB Rate (98/100. He spells a dream for analytical baseball."
"Look, Civale does not have elite numbers. I get it. We must remember that we are looking to trust the analytics in 2026. The big weakness of Civale has been his velocity, which he counteracts that with his array of pitches. Civale throws three breaking pitches with a 4-seam fastball. He has often has great breaking and offspeed pitch value, per Statcast. I would very must entrust Butera and company to work a plan of his pitching output and toss Civale in as a quality 3rd or 4th rotationa"
The Washington Nationals enter the offseason with a current payroll allocation of $47 million and typically spend around $100 million, leaving room to add veteran talent. The team needs at least one starting pitcher and will likely target cost-effective, analytics-friendly options under a moneyball approach with Blake Butera driving analytic strategy. Zach Eflin presents a moderately priced free-agent option (around $16 million AAV) if health concerns from a back injury can be managed. Aaron Civale offers pitch-mix value despite lower velocity and could serve as a reliable third or fourth starter with analytic support.
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