The false premise of prediction markets
Briefly

"I think we should just take a step back and do a little critical thinking about whether we should really be taking them seriously, or at least what other dynamics might be at play in creating those odds."
"Prediction markets, in a way that's not all that different from polling, are 'metrics of sentiment.' It's not about promises but a snapshot, reflecting a moment in time."
Read at Fortune
[
|
]