""An investment thesis is not a religion. It should be provably wrong. If you haven't figured out how you can lose money, you haven't thought long enough.""
""You can very easily determine your downside, which tends to be the pre-deal price, and your upside, which is the deal price. This forces you to think in probabilistic terms.""
""It's not for nothing that he calls himself a 'self-aware paranoid optimist.'""
Nicolas Giauque emphasizes the importance of a critical mindset for investors, stating that an investment thesis should be testable and not treated as a belief. He oversees $44 billion at Farallon Capital Management, which has maintained a strong performance record through a probabilistic approach to investing. This method involves stress-testing investment ideas against potential failures. Giauque's background in merger arbitrage has shaped his risk assessment strategy, focusing on clear upside and downside scenarios to inform decision-making.
Read at Fortune
Unable to calculate read time
Collection
[
|
...
]