"With uncertainty swirling around the U.S. economy and everyone keeping a close eye on the job market, Americans are paying more attention to the stimulus debate than ever before. Instead of just sitting back and waiting for Washington to act, some folks have started placing wagers on prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket, betting on whether new stimulus-like payments might actually show up next year and what those odds look like."
"In early December, he hammered home that timeline in a social media post, writing: "Next year is projected to be the largest tax refund season ever, and we're going to be giving back refunds out of the tariffs, as we have taken in literally trillions of dollars. We're going to be giving a nice dividend to the people in addition to reducing debt.""
Prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket are attracting wagers on whether tariff-funded stimulus payments will arrive next year. The proposal traces to a November suggestion of tariff-funded dividend checks to middle-class Americans, potentially up to $2,000 per person, and references to aligning payments with 2026 tax refunds funded by tariff revenue. A December social media post projected large tax refunds and pledged refunds from tariffs and a dividend to Americans while reducing debt. Kalshi defined a benchmark requiring at least 1 million Americans to receive $1,000+ payments attributable to tariff revenue before Jan. 1, 2027.
Read at 24/7 Wall St.
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