"Back in October of last year, 55% of traders in Fed Funds futures contracts assumed the U.S. Federal Reserve would deliver an interest rate cut this month, bringing the base rate down to the 3.25% level. Today, 90% of them think the Fed will hold rates at 3.5% when it meets in 19 days time. In other words, another cut from the Fed is off the table, as far as Wall Street is concerned."
"Two factors appear to have helped change traders' minds about the Fed's plans. And by weird coincidence we'll get new, market-moving data on both fronts today: The Bureau of Labor Statistics will report a new set of nonfarm payroll jobs numbers today. The consensus of analyst estimates is for a gain of 70,000 jobs and unemployment to decline marginally to 4.5%. The new numbers are due at 8.30 a.m. Eastern time."
""Our Nation's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is predicted to come in at over 5% ... a direct result of TARIFFS, which have rescued our Economy and National Security. I hope the Supreme Court is aware of these Historic, Country saving achievements prior to the issuance of their most important (ever!) Decision. Thank you for your attention to this matter!""
Fed Funds futures traders shifted from anticipating a rate cut to overwhelmingly pricing in no cut, with 90% expecting rates held at 3.5% at the next Fed meeting in 19 days. Two developments altered expectations: incoming labor-market data and a pending Supreme Court decision on tariff authority. Nonfarm payrolls are due at 8:30 a.m. ET with a consensus for a 70,000 job gain and unemployment at 4.5%. The Supreme Court ruling could require roughly $179 billion in tariff refunds. Equity futures were flat and global markets were mostly higher as investors awaited the releases.
Read at Fortune
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