Trump's immigration curbs will help take 2.4 million people out of the workforce, but he's betting AI can pick up the slack | Fortune

"The U.S. working-age population is headed for a cliff, one that has become much steeper over the past year due, in part, to the Trump administration's strict immigration policies. The proportion of American adults who are employed or actively looking for a job was always going to shrink over the next decade as the labor force as a whole ages."

"Over the next decade, the U.S. population is forecast to grow an average 0.3% each year, according to an outlook report from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), published Wednesday. That's half the growth rate the nonpartisan agency had reported last year, and equates to a downward revision of 2.4 million fewer working-age Americans by 2035. A smaller workforce could have a considerable effect on U.S. productivity for the foreseeable future-but in the Trump administration's eyes, emerging technologies could help mitigate the blow."

"The CBO report noted rising business adoption of artificial intelligence could help productivity stay afloat in the next decade. By 2036, output in the U.S. economy will be 1% higher than it would have been without the help of AI, a value add potentially worth several hundreds of billions of dollars, according to the report. The report referred to AI's impact as an "offsetting factor" as the economy runs into a labor force slowdown."

Population projections show the U.S. population will grow about 0.3% annually over the next decade, half the growth rate projected last year, producing a downward revision of 2.4 million fewer working-age Americans by 2035. The labor force faces pressures from aging, declining birth rates, and stricter immigration policies that together create a more than two million-person gap. A smaller workforce could reduce U.S. productivity for the foreseeable future. Rising business adoption of artificial intelligence could offset some losses: by 2036 U.S. output may be about 1% higher because of AI, and private-sector investment is increasing—projected 3.9% growth this year and roughly $650 billion committed to AI infrastructure.

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