"Trump has been pressuring Powell to cut since winning the Oval Office (despite lobbying for the contrary before the elections). He has even given Powell the nickname of 'Too Late' for, in his opinion, being delayed in reducing the base rate as market conditions have changed. Not to miss an opportunity to criticize Powell, Trump added this weekend that the Fed chairman is "incompetent.""
"While many analysts agree the economic environment does call for a reduction in the base rate, currently at 4.25% to 4.5%, few believe the committee will go further than reduction of a single click (25 basis points). Some speculators, like Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, believe the Fed should cut harder by 50 bps. Yet overall the market isn't sold on this strategy, with interest investors pricing in a 3.9% chance of the FOMC reducing the rate to 3.75% to 4%."
"Trump failed to oust Fed Governor Lisa Cook and is unlikely to secure the steep rate cut he's demanded, with markets expecting only a 25bp move this week. While White House advisor Stephen Miran's temporary seat raises fresh concerns about Fed independence, most analysts-including Wharton's Jeremy Siegel-see gradual easing as the more credible path. Trump has lost a couple of battles recently in his war on the Fed: He hasn't succeeded in ousting Federal Governor Lisa Cook, and his calls for a significant cut are likely to go unanswered."
Trump failed to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook and is unlikely to secure the large rate cut he has demanded. Markets price a 25 basis point move this week, with investors assigning only a 3.9% probability to a 50bp cut to 3.75–4%. White House advisor Stephen Miran's temporary seat raises concerns about Fed independence. Many analysts, including Wharton's Jeremy Siegel, view gradual easing as the more credible path. Trump has repeatedly pressured Chair Powell, called him 'Too Late' and 'incompetent,' and accused Cook of false mortgage statements. Some speculators, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, advocate a 50bp cut.
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