America's economic forecasts remain precarious as GDP and inflation predictions fluctuate. Forecasters caution against relying on their models, citing the unpredictability stemming from current policies. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model indicates possible sharp contraction, though this may not reflect reality. The ongoing U.S.-China trade war could pose significant threats to economic stability. Additionally, federal workforce reductions and looming government shutdowns add layers of uncertainty, complicating financial landscapes and the enactment of budgetary policies.
Forecasters are writing GDP and inflation estimates in pencil, warning that their models can't possibly account for all the ways the jumble of policies could net out.
It's really drinking from a fire hose at this point, trying to understand where things are going is unusually difficult, historically difficult.
The longer the North American and U.S.-China trade war lasts, the more damage it risks for the economy.
Republicans want to pass a budget that chops spending to pave the way to enact Trump's fiscal agenda - a difficult task without cutbacks to politically sensitive entitlement programs.
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