"Coming into today's highly anticipated jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), we already knew that hiring was basically flat in the second half of 2025, the worst non-recession jobs year since 2003. The struggle to get hired in America is very real, but it is not translating to firings. One big problem with all the labor market data is all the contradictory messages it sends."
"BLS data proves that the unemployment rate remains low, at 4.3%, roughly about what it was in 2000 and 2006. Recession doomers will point out how the rate is currently slowly curling up like it did before it spiked into recessions after 2000 and 2006, but it's not there yet. The employment to population ratio of 25- to 54-year-olds is near all-time highs at 80.9%."
"One big problem with saying we are in a recession is that typically, we cannot say for certain until afterwards. It takes time to build enough data to make a conclusive case, and one really good month of January 2026 job data that far surpassed analysts' expectations is not enough to overrule the gigantic downward revisions made to 2025 and 2024 job growth."
Hiring was basically flat in the second half of 2025, making it the worst non-recession jobs year since 2003. Unemployment remains low at 4.3%, similar to 2000 and 2006, while the employment-to-population ratio for 25- to 54-year-olds is near an all-time high at 80.9%. Total nonfarm layoffs and discharges sit below historic baselines. One strong January 2026 jobs month exceeded expectations but does not erase large downward revisions to 2024–2025 job growth. The data sends contradictory signals, producing robust employment levels without substantial new hiring and fueling debate over recession timing under Trump 2.0.
Read at Jezebel
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