The Fed is so divided that the next vote on rates could result in an unprecedented tie, analysts say. 'Then things would get really messy' | Fortune

"After two earlier cuts, recent comments from policymakers have been leaning hawkish as inflation remains stuck above the Fed's target, dampening hopes for more easing at the Federal Open Market Committee's Dec. 9-10 meeting. But New York Fed President John Williams surprised Wall Street on Friday when he said he sees "room for a further adjustment in the near term" to bring benchmark rates closer to neutral."

""That's still only four ayes in favor of a cut and six nays against but, to the extent that Williams and Fed Chair Jerome Powell often hold the same view (and Governor Lisa Cook usually votes with Powell), we could have a six-six tie," Capital Economics said. "Then things would get really messy since it's not clear that Powell has a casting vote, so the vote to change policy might simply fail to be carried.""

"The four regional Fed bank presidents on the committee-Susan Collins, Austan Goolsbee, Alberto Musalem and Jeffrey Schmid-have sounded skeptical or "downright hostile" to the idea of a rate cut next month. Fed governors Michael Barr and Phillip Jefferson have also signaled caution. On the dovish side, the three Trump-appointed Fed governors-Michelle Bowman, Stephen Miran and Christopher Waller-have been calling for rate cuts, and Williams sounded Friday like he could join them."

Federal Reserve officials show increasing disagreement over policy, with recent comments leaning hawkish as inflation remains above target. New York Fed President John Williams unexpectedly signaled room for another near-term adjustment, boosting odds of a December rate cut and sparking a market rally. Several regional presidents and two Fed governors have expressed skepticism or opposition to further easing, while three Trump-appointed governors and potentially Williams favor cuts. Capital Economics warns a split could produce a six-six tie on the 12-member FOMC, leaving no clear mechanism to carry a policy change. The September jobs report is unlikely to decisively shift votes.

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