"Last month, the Texas legislature approved new congressional maps that are likely to give Republicans control of three to five more seats in the House of Representatives in next year's midterm elections. In response, California Governor Gavin Newsom has advanced a ballot measure that would give voters in his state the chance to add several Democratic House members. Meanwhile, the Trump Administration has pushed other Republican-led states to redraw their own maps."
"For the map as it existed in the 2024 election, the party that won the most votes for the House was quite likely to win the most seats. That was not guaranteed. It obviously comes down to the exact results in a handful of districts that with the wrong candidates or just some plain bad luck could go either way. But fundamentally, if you won the popular vote, you would be favored to win."
Texas enacted congressional maps likely to deliver Republicans three to five additional House seats. California's governor proposed a ballot measure to add Democratic House members in response. The Trump Administration urged other Republican-led states to redraw maps. Despite redistricting efforts, House seat allocation tends to follow the House popular vote, though a few districts can swing outcomes. A pending Supreme Court case could influence the 2026 House outcome more than redistricting. Republicans are making steady voter-registration gains. Understanding Donald Trump's current popularity remains an important factor in electoral calculations.
Read at The New Yorker
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