Goldman Sachs has adjusted its expectations regarding Trump's tariffs, now anticipating a one-time increase in prices rather than a continuous rise, which alleviates initial concerns about long-term economic volatility. As the August 1 deadline approaches, analysts suggest potential delays rather than sustained tariff hikes. Currently, Goldman Sachs predicts a rise in the reciprocal tariff rate from 10% to 15%, and an effective overall tariff rate closer to 20% by next year, reflecting an evolving landscape in trade policy amid positive economic data.
Goldman Sachs now expects a one-time rise in prices rather than a sustained surge due to Trump's tariff hikes, easing earlier fears of long-term economic volatility.
Analysts warn that investor calm could embolden the White House to implement further tariffs, particularly if economic data remains strong as the August 1 deadline approaches.
Goldman Sachs has changed its trade policy assumptions, now anticipating an increase in the 'reciprocal' tariff rate from 10% to 15%.
Goldman now forecasts the effective tariff rate to rise closer to 20% by next year, contrary to previous expectations of around 14% in 2025.
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