The race looks like a real contest, with yard signs and all the usual campaign events. Yet when you dig a little deeper, there's far less going on than it may seem. Trump is the political version of a Florida-based absentee landlord. He barely held any campaign events in the state until the final week. Now the former president has come to collect what he believes is his due.
Haley's strongest appeal comes from voters who have largely abandoned the Republican Party as their political home. She's relying on independent voters, or undeclared as they're called here in New Hampshire. Those voters are a significant voting bloc, about 40 percent of the state's electorate. But they're not Republicans. All of this adds up to something that feels like less than a serious competition. The biggest news over the weekend when Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida dropped out of the race and endorsed Trump did not seem to substantially move those margins. Even if Haley somehow wins in New Hampshire, her path is difficult.
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