#independent-voters

#independent-voters

Among 1,291registered voters, 55% said they'd vote for the Democratic candidate in their Housedistrict, compared to 41% who said they'd back the Republican, according to a NPR/PBS News/Marist Poll national survey conducted last week. Another 3% said they would vote for another party's candidate, and 1% were unsure. When voters were last asked the question, back in November of last year, they were evenlydivided, 48% to 48%.

Yeah, you might think, given that the Republicans are in charge of both the House and the Senate, that a government shutdown might actually hurt the Republican brand. But in fact, it hasn't! If anything, it's been helped a little bit! Take a look here, the shift in net popularity versus pre-shutdown. When we're looking at the Republican Party overall, that brand, actually up two points. That's within the margin of error, but clearly it hasn't dropped.

According to a July poll from Gallup, the president's net approval sat at -35% within independent voters. Trump's net approval rating's minus-29 points indicates that he's definitely not winning overall when so low with independents.

Trump's net approval rating among independents has fallen from negative 16% in 2017 to negative 22% in 2025, breaking his own previous record.