"Soon, rumors swirled about Trump's healthand ghoulish hashtags even claimed he had died. Yes, it was just another weekend in the online rumor mill, but this round of speculation came with a novel twist: a flurry of bets about the president's health on so-called prediction market sites. On Kalshi, the odds of Vice President JD Vance taking office by the end of the year shot up to 15%."
"Trump's alleged disappearance, of course, proved a false alarm. By Tuesday, the internet had moved on to other diversionsbut not before pundits blasted Kalshi and its prediction markets rival Polymarket for running assassination markets, where the public could (indirectly) wager on the death of a public figure. Those accusations may have been overblownnot least because one of Trump's sons invests in and advises both Kalshi and Polymarket."
"Kalshi and Polymarket have been around for seven and five years respectively, but their big breakout came during last year's U.S. presidential election campaign. Over the course of several months, millions of people convened on the platforms to wager more than $3 billion on the outcome, resulting in forecast that proved far more accurate than the most highly regarded polls."
Over Labor Day weekend social media carried observations that President Trump had not been seen in public, prompting a surge of wagers on prediction market sites. Kalshi users saw odds of Vice President JD Vance taking office by year-end rise to 15 percent, with a $15 wager paying $100 if Vance took office. Pundits criticized platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket for allegedly enabling assassination markets, and observers noted conflicts of interest because one of Trump's sons invests in and advises both firms. Prediction markets expanded during the last U.S. presidential election, when participants wagered more than $3 billion and produced forecasts that outperformed major polls.
Read at fortune.com
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