How Not to Plan for War

"Since launching a military campaign in the Caribbean earlier this year, President Donald Trump has made clear what phase one of his plan looks like: killing alleged drug smugglers and pushing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro to leave office. The end goal-let's call it phase three-is to work with a new government to gain access to the country's oil and rare earth minerals. Phase two? That's an open question."

"Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who also serves as acting national security adviser, has taken the lead in planning for a variety of contingencies, several officials told us, although they said that the planning is restricted to a very small group of senior officials around the president and that they couldn't provide any details. Other officials involved in Venezuela discussions told us that if there is any substantive planning being done, it was news to them,"

"The opacity comes, in part, from Trump's desire to avoid the pitfalls that came with previous U.S. attempts to plan for the unpredictable and often-chaotic outcomes of regime change in authoritarian nations. (See Iraq.) Trump, one official told us, prefers to take a "wait-and-see approach" before deciding his next move. But divisions within the administration over whether to go all the way in attempting to push Maduro from power also play a role."

Phase one of the campaign targets alleged drug smugglers and exerts pressure to remove Nicolás Maduro from power, with a declared ultimate aim of securing access to Venezuela's oil and rare earth minerals. Planning for a transitional phase remains unclear. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, serving also as acting national security adviser, leads contingency planning within a very small circle of senior officials, while many other officials report little awareness of substantive plans. Opacity stems from a presidential preference for a 'wait-and-see' approach and concerns about repeating the unpredictable pitfalls of past regime-change efforts. Internal divisions persist over how far to push Maduro.

Read at The Atlantic