"Since 1946, there have been 20 midterm elections. In 18 of them, the president's party lost seats in the House of Representatives. That's 90% of the midterm elections in the past 80 years. Measured against that pattern, the odds that the Republicans will hold their slim House majority in 2026 are small. Another factor makes them smaller. When the sitting president is "underwater" - below 50% - in job approval polls, the likelihood of a bad midterm election result becomes a certainty."
"All the presidents since Harry S. Truman whose job approval was below 50% in the month before a midterm election lost seats in the House. All of them. Even popular presidents - Dwight D. Eisenhower, in both of his terms; John F. Kennedy; Richard Nixon; Gerald Ford; Ronald Reagan in 1986; and George H. W. Bush - lost seats in midterm elections."
"Ronald Reagan in 1986; and George H. W. Bush - lost seats in midterm elections. The list of unpopular presidents who lost House seats is even longer - Truman in 1946 and 1950, Lyndon B. Johnson in 1966, Jimmy Carter in 1978, Reagan in 1982, Bill Clinton in 1994, George W. Bush in 2006, Barack Obama in both 2010 and 2014, Donald Trump in 2018 and Joe Biden in 2022."
Since 1946 there have been 20 midterm elections, and in 18 of them the president's party lost House seats, a 90% rate over 80 years. Midterm setbacks for the president's party are a deeply entrenched pattern. When presidential job approval falls below 50% in the month before a midterm, the president's party has always lost House seats. Even presidents with periods of popularity — Eisenhower, Kennedy, Nixon, Ford, Reagan in 1986, and George H. W. Bush — lost House seats in midterms. A long list of unpopular presidents also lost seats, reinforcing the consistent midterm disadvantage.
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