Government shutdown delays release of critically important inflation figures

"The shutdown could make things worse for agencies like the Fed if it continues, because government agencies cannot collect the raw data that are then compiled into the monthly reports on jobs, inflation, and other economic trends. The September employment report, for example, which was due to be released Oct. 3 but was not issued because of the shutdown, was essentially completed before the government closed and could be released fairly quickly once the shutdown ends. But October data could be delayed much longer."

"Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Tuesday in remarks to the National Association for Business Economics that the central bank for now is looking at data from the private sector, such as payroll processor ADP, which issues its own monthly report on hiring by U.S. businesses, to gauge the economy. It is also relying on anecdotal reports from the hundreds of businesses that the regional Fed banks consult with."

"The Labor Department's monthly inflation data was scheduled for release Wednesday, but late last week was postponed until Oct. 24. The department is recalling some employees to assemble the data, which was collected before the shutdown began. The figures are needed for the government to calculate the annual cost of living adjustment for tens of millions of recipients of benefit programs such as Social Security."

The government shutdown is delaying monthly economic reports, including Labor Department inflation data and employment reports, because agencies cannot gather raw data during the closure. Some employees are being recalled to assemble pre-collected data, and the inflation figures are needed to calculate annual cost-of-living adjustments for tens of millions of benefit recipients such as Social Security. The September employment report was largely completed before the shutdown and could be released quickly after it ends, while October data face longer delays. The Federal Reserve is using private-sector sources like ADP and anecdotal business reports to monitor hiring, but fewer alternatives exist for tracking inflation and growth.

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