
"Kathy Hochul's coalition is historically fragile: soft support from her own voters, significant growing appetite for change, and her endorsement of politically toxic Zohran Mamdani collapses support among Independents,"
"The data overwhelmingly points to unprecedented vulnerability for an incumbent New York Democrat Governor, and a race that Republicans can win,"
"deeply vulnerable position."
New York Gov. Kathy Hochul leads potential Republican challenger Elise Stefanik by five points on an initial ballot, 48% to 43%, but loses that advantage when likely voters hear about both candidates' records, with Stefanik narrowly ahead 46.4% to 45.9%. Endorsement of New York City mayoral frontrunner Zohran Mamdani reduces Democratic support, and up to 47% of independents say they'd be less likely to back Hochul or other Democrats if Mamdani wins. Voter concerns about bail reform and cost-of-living issues depress Hochul's standing; job approval registers 39% approval to 56% disapproval and only 34% favor re-election.
Read at New York Post
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