Warnings about an economic downturn are increasingly prevalent, driven largely by surveys indicating declining confidence among consumers and businesses, along with rising corporate layoffs and market instability. Recent indicators, such as the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey, are showing significant declines. Factors contributing to this shift include the uncertainty over potential new tariffs and federal workforce cuts, which have made both consumers and companies hesitant about spending and investment, even as definitive data indicating a recession is not yet available.
The bad news is that warning bells of what is to come are ringing every which way.
A confluence of forces emanating from Washington is driving the vibe shift.
The threat of new tariffs far larger than those enacted in the previous Trump term is part of it.
Announced layoffs reached their highest levels since the summer of 2020, when the pandemic was in full force.
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