"Take David Bensoussan, for example. He bet nearly $10,000 that Musk wouldn't form a new political party after threatening to do so during a rift with President Trump last summer. When Musk didn't follow through, he made a 10% return. Altogether Bensoussan has made more than $36,000 on 12 Musk-related bets, correctly wagering Musk wouldn't buy MSNBC, would leave his White House job in May, and that Tesla would miss its December 31 deadline for unsupervised self-driving software."
"Musk is the second-most popular betting topic on prediction markets after Trump, with 53 markets on Polymarket and 46 on Kalshi."
Bettors on prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket have profited by wagering that Elon Musk will not follow through on public statements and threats. One bettor, David Bensoussan, risked nearly $10,000 that Musk would not form a new political party and earned a 10% return when Musk did not act. Bensoussan has earned more than $36,000 across 12 Musk-related bets by correctly predicting outcomes such as Musk not buying MSNBC, leaving a White House job in May, and Tesla missing a December 31 deadline for unsupervised self-driving software. Musk ranks behind Trump in market popularity, with dozens of active markets.
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