"Now he sees an uncanny resemblance - almost an uncanny valley - between the inflation mountain range of the 1970s and '80s with the inflation wave of 2021 and what may lie ahead for the U.S. economy."
"Slok wrote in his Daily Spark newsletter for August 31 that upside pressure is mounting on inflation and inflation expectations from tariffs, dollar depreciation and growing disagreement on the Federal Open Market Committee about how to balance rising inflation with slowing employment."
"The chart shared by Slok and Apollo juxtaposes the current path of U.S. core CPI with inflation periods from 1974 to 1982, illustrating a close similarity to the inflation wave of 1973/1974 with that of 2021/2022."
An uncanny resemblance appears between the 1970s–80s inflation mountain range and the 2021 inflation wave, suggesting a potential repeat. Upside pressure on inflation and inflation expectations is building from tariffs, dollar depreciation and increasing disagreement on the Federal Open Market Committee about balancing rising inflation with slowing employment. Historical patterns show an initial inflation spike in the 1970s followed by a steeper second climb driven by external shocks and policy errors; if the pattern holds, another peak could begin around fall 2025. Signals from central-bank language and research note elevated risks if rates are cut amid sticky inflation.
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