"Last summer, Bank of America Research predicted a " sea change" in the economy as companies showed increasing signs of learning how to be productive with fewer workers, putting process over people. Six months later, analysts see another year of growth-in GDP, not new jobs. It rhymes with another projection, from Goldman Sachs, that " jobless growth " could become the new normal in the 2020s."
"That's as the workforce stays generally flat in the coming years with the native-born population aging and President Donald Trump's immigration crackdown sending net inflows to as little as 160,000 a year-down from more than 3 million a few years ago. This agrees with another projection from last August, when JPMorgan Asset Management strategist David Kelly said it was quite possible there would be " no growth in workers at all " over the next five years."
Forecasts project GDP growth accelerating to roughly 2.8% as productivity gains increasingly drive output while payroll growth remains minimal. The native-born population is aging and immigration restrictions have reduced net inflows to about 160,000 annually, constraining labor force expansion. Firms are extracting more output from fewer workers through process improvements and earlier R&D investments beginning to pay off. AI adoption and a more dynamic business environment are set to boost productivity further, reducing the number of jobs needed to keep unemployment stable. Job growth is expected to average under 40,000 payrolls per month for the near term.
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