Astronomers have reassured the public regarding asteroid 2024 YR4, initially projected to carry a 3% chance of impact in 2032. After thorough monitoring, its risk level has dramatically decreased to about one in several hundred thousand. Tim Spahr, manager of the International Asteroid Warning Network, noted the ramp-down in probability, emphasizing ongoing observations as key to understanding the object's path. NASA's Paul Chodas affirmed the uncertainty might reduce to zero any day, showcasing the dynamic nature of celestial tracking and the importance of continual observation in assessing threats.
When Paul Chodas, director of the NASA JPL Center for NEO Studies (CNEOS), spoke to NPR earlier this month, he stressed that the probability that 2024 YR4 would hit the Earth "could fall to zero almost any day now," as new observations came in.
Now, "it's down to about one in a few hundred thousand and that's below the background of things we're very interested in," IAWN Manager Tim Spahr says.
The real trick of this is that the asteroid doesn't tell us where it is,
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