Inflation rose less than expected in September, the U.S. belatedly reports

"Annual inflation rose less than expected in September, according to a crucial report published Friday, nine days later than normal due to the government shutdown. Consumer prices rose 3.0% in September from a year ago, slightly below forecasters' expectations, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). On a month-to-month basis, prices rose 0.3%, cooling slightly from the 0.4% inflation reported in August."

"Overall, the inflation data likely cement expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by another quarter percentage point at its policy meeting later this month its second consecutive cut. But the Fed is missing other key economic data since most BLS workers were furloughed at the beginning of the month, when the shutdown began. Most government economic reports have been suspended until funding is restored."

"A core group of BLS number-crunchers were recalled specifically to publish the September inflation report, which was initially set to publish on Oct. 15. That's because it's a key part of the formula used to calculate the cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) that 75 million Social Security recipients will receive next year. The Social Security Administration has said it will also publish the 2026 COLA on Friday. The raw material for the inflation report the price checks on hundreds of goods and services around the country was collected in September. Tariffs continue to put upward pressure on the price of imported goods, while other components of inflation, such as housing costs, have been moderating somewhat."

Consumer prices increased 3.0% year-over-year in September and 0.3% month-to-month, cooling from 0.4% in August. The softer inflation pace strengthens expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point at its upcoming meeting, marking a second consecutive cut. Most Bureau of Labor Statistics workers were furloughed during the government shutdown, suspending many economic reports, though a core team was recalled to publish September data because it feeds the cost-of-living adjustment for 75 million Social Security recipients. Price checks were collected in September; tariffs have pushed up import prices while housing costs have moderated.

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