"If you're struggling to find a job, get a promotion, or shop the way you used to, you're not an anomaly. In fact, you're on one side of a "bifurcated" economy where wealthier, older people are fairing markedly better than their younger counterparts. That's according to Oxford Economics, who wrote that overall the outlook for consumers is "optimistic" but that the divide between those thriving and those surviving is deepening-and is expected to diverge even further."
"Using data from Haver Analytics and the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), Oxford Economics found that tariffs and changes to the fiscal landscape will have a negative net impact on real income for the lowest 0% to 20% of earners, of approximately 2.5% over the next 10 years. Conversely, the packages outlined by the Trump administration increasingly benefit those higher up the income ladder."
Wealthier, older households are faring markedly better than younger and lower-income consumers, creating a bifurcated U.S. economy. Tariffs and fiscal policy changes disproportionately reduce real incomes for the lowest earners, with an estimated 2.5% hit for the bottom 0–20% over the next decade. Fiscal packages increasingly benefit higher-income households while mid-income segments face modest declines in spending power. A tightening labor market, longer unemployment spells, and job losses concentrated at smaller firms intensify pressure on younger consumers. Overall spending is being sustained mainly by affluent households, increasing dependency on their continued consumption.
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