"The dollar index was stable on Wednesday, as investors awaited new catalysts that could shape the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory. The FOMC minutes later today and Thursday's delayed nonfarm payrolls report are set to influence sentiment and shift expectations for the December Fed meeting. US Treasury yields reflected that uncertainty, with muted moves across the curve and the 10-year hovering near 4.12%."
"Tuesday's initial jobless claims, the first official labour update since late September, offered fresh evidence of softening conditions. New filings totalled 232,000 for the week ending October 18, above expectations. Continuing claims rose to 1.957 million, in line with other signs of weaker hiring and slower labour demand. Attention now turns to Thursday's NFP release, expected to show job growth rising from 22,000 to around 50,000, while the unemployment rate is forecast to hold at 4.3%."
"Traders remain split on the Fed's next move, with market pricing now showing a 46% probability of a December rate cut versus a pause. Any signs of labour market fragility would likely strengthen expectations for a December cut and pressure both the dollar and yields. Conversely, stronger-than-expected figures could offer the greenback a short-term boost and give treasury yields room to rise."
Markets await FOMC minutes and the delayed nonfarm payrolls report to shape expectations for the December Federal Reserve meeting. The dollar index remained stable while US Treasury yields showed muted moves, with the 10-year near 4.12%. Market pricing assigns roughly a 46% probability to a December rate cut versus a pause. Initial jobless claims rose to 232,000 for the week ending October 18 and continuing claims increased to 1.957 million, signaling softer labour demand. NFP is expected around 50,000 with unemployment forecast at 4.3%; weaker payrolls would pressure the dollar and yields, while stronger data could lift both.
Read at London Business News | Londonlovesbusiness.com
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