"Each fall, we get a college football weekend that looks solid on paper and turns out spectacular because, oh look, there are lots of ranked teams on the road! The first Saturday of November offers a trio of ranked-versus-ranked games, but also gives us 10 other ranked teams leaving home. All are favored, but there's only a 9% chance they all win, per SP+. On average, three will lose."
"Sure, some road teams -- Notre Dame (at Boston College), Memphis (at Rice), Indiana (at a flagging Maryland) -- are probably safer than others, but the distribution of upsets will have a huge impact on a College Football Playoff race that is about to pick up steam. It is November, after all, and the first CFP rankings come out next week. It would hurt quite a bit to stumble before the race really gets going, but a few teams almost certainly will."
Week 10 features a concentration of ranked teams playing on the road, including three ranked-versus-ranked matchups and 10 additional road games for ranked teams. SP+ projects only a 9% chance that all favored road teams will win, implying about three losses on average. Some road games appear safer than others, but the distribution of upsets can materially influence the College Football Playoff race as November begins and the first CFP rankings arrive. Averaging CFP predictor odds with SP+ produces playoff probability tiers that separate likely contenders from hopefuls and long shots.
Read at ESPN.com
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