Astronomers have identified a large asteroid, 2024 YR4, that has a greater than 1% chance of impacting Earth on December 22, 2032. The International Warning Asteroid Network (IAWN) has issued its first potential impact notification to alert the scientific community. Initially, the asteroid had a 1.3% chance of impact, but recent updates raised it to 1.6%. Experts emphasize that while the implications are serious, the probability of a miss remains dominant. With time ticking for closer observation, astronomers need advanced telescopes soon, or they will lose sight until 2028.
Hitting the 1% impact probability is a rare event indeed. The odds of a football-field-sized asteroid hitting Earth are alarming, but chances of a miss remain higher.
We need larger and larger telescopes to observe this object. By mid-April, it will be too faint to be detected, delaying any further observations.
The way the probability of an impact is determined is much like how the National Weather Service determines chances that a hurricane will make landfall.
As astronomers further refine their calculations for 2024 YR4, the odds of an Earth strike could fall to zero altogether.
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