David Shor's analysis reveals that Trump's 2024 victory is largely attributed to gains among non-traditional voter demographics, including young and minority voters, as well as significant issues like inflation overshadowing the Democrats' threats to democracy messaging. Shor highlights a delayed ideological polarization among these groups compared to white voters, suggesting Democrats struggled to maintain support that previously seemed secure. This analysis challenges existing assumptions about voter turnout and preferences, especially regarding engagement levels within different racial and age groups during the pandemic and its economic aftermath.
If we look at 2016 to 2024 trends by race and ideology, you see this clear story where white voters really did not shift at all.
Trump made significant gains among Black, Latino, Asian American, immigrant and under-30 voters, reversing assumptions about Democratic advantages.
Inflation was the overriding issue among persuadable voters, despite Democrats stressing the threat posed by Trump's return to power.
Shor's findings suggest a delayed ideological polarization in non-white voters that mirrors past trends observed in white voter behavior.
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