The polls, by and large, did a good job of picking up this sentiment, but pollsters... did not model an electorate with both major parties in decline and independents surging to overtake the Democrats.
The result was that Trump won decisively while most polls suggested a dead heat. Many pollsters were wrong, not capturing the true dynamics of voter turnout and independence.
From 2020 to 2024, Democrats decreased while independents increased by about the difference, showing a clear shift in the electorate's preferences that caught pollsters off guard.
Republicans saw less turnout intensity than Democrats; the notion that Trump won due to high Republican turnout ignores the significant role independent with shifting support played in his victory.
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