Trump's success in the 2024 elections highlights a persistent polling error that consistently underestimates Republican support, raising questions about polling accuracy and methodology.
The national polling averages underestimated Trump's support, forecasting a slight advantage for Harris. Trump currently leads by 3.5%, revealing a 3 to 4% polling error.
Despite anticipations, the polling error is within historical norms, being even less than previous elections. This recurring underestimation of Trump's support prompts a reevaluation of polling practices.
The phenomenon of 'blue shift' suggests that as ballots are counted, particularly mail-in votes, Democratic support could increase, potentially narrowing Trump's lead further.
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