How Top Pollsters Grade 2024's PollsPolls were generally accurate in the 2024 election, but perceptions of their effectiveness are mixed due to Trump's wins.
Pollsters Who Missed in 2016, 2020 Say They Finally Cracked' How to Pin Down Trump Voters in 2024Pollsters believe they improved their accuracy in predicting Trump voter support in 2024 compared to 2016 and 2020.
Live Election Polls: Here Are the Most Accurate Trump vs. Harris Predictions | amNewYorkPrediction markets are seen as more accurate than traditional polls for tracking the 2024 presidential election dynamics.
How Top Pollsters Grade 2024's PollsPolls were generally accurate in the 2024 election, but perceptions of their effectiveness are mixed due to Trump's wins.
Pollsters Who Missed in 2016, 2020 Say They Finally Cracked' How to Pin Down Trump Voters in 2024Pollsters believe they improved their accuracy in predicting Trump voter support in 2024 compared to 2016 and 2020.
Live Election Polls: Here Are the Most Accurate Trump vs. Harris Predictions | amNewYorkPrediction markets are seen as more accurate than traditional polls for tracking the 2024 presidential election dynamics.
Trump sues Des Moines Register newspaper, claiming election interference'Trump's lawsuit alleges pre-election polling interference by The Des Moines Register and its pollster.
The Battlegrounds Where Harris-vs.-Trump Polling Error Is LikeliestPolling inaccuracies have impacted election outcomes in key states, necessitating a closer examination of polling methodologies leading into 2024.
Why do election polls seem to have such a mixed track record? - Harvard GazettePolling has evolved after inaccuracies in past elections, with a focus on improving methodologies and understanding political dynamics.
Polls underestimated Trump support for third election in a rowPolling results often underestimate support for Donald Trump, confirming trends from previous elections.
Polymarket predicted Trump's win. Now comes the hard part.Prediction markets consistently provide more accurate election forecasts than traditional polls and media outlets.
The Battlegrounds Where Harris-vs.-Trump Polling Error Is LikeliestPolling inaccuracies have impacted election outcomes in key states, necessitating a closer examination of polling methodologies leading into 2024.
Why do election polls seem to have such a mixed track record? - Harvard GazettePolling has evolved after inaccuracies in past elections, with a focus on improving methodologies and understanding political dynamics.
Polls underestimated Trump support for third election in a rowPolling results often underestimate support for Donald Trump, confirming trends from previous elections.
Polymarket predicted Trump's win. Now comes the hard part.Prediction markets consistently provide more accurate election forecasts than traditional polls and media outlets.
What Has Changed?Polling strategies are failing to capture Republican voter sentiment, leading to surprising election outcomes.Identity politics are losing relevance in political campaigns, as seen in Harris’s failed strategy.
Latino organization dispute election data on Hispanic support for TrumpThe majority of Latino voters supported Kamala Harris, contradicting claims that they favored Trump.A unified challenge from Latino and minority organizations addresses inaccuracies in exit polling data.
What the Harris vs. Trump Polls Got WrongTrump leads Harris in national vote despite polling predictions, which consistently underestimate Republican support.
The Polls Are Right This Time ... Right?Pollsters remain skeptical about trusting current polling data after previous inaccuracies in predicting election outcomes.
Betting odds called the 2024 election better than polls did. What does this mean for the future of prediction markets?Polls underestimated Donald Trump's support in the 2024 election, continuing a recent trend of polling inaccuracies.
Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour On Prediction Markets' Big Night: 'We Even Overtook Pornhub'Prediction markets may provide alternative insights into election outcomes, contrasting sharply with traditional polls.
Should Biden be worried about losing Black voters to Trump? podcastDonald Trump may receive significant Black voter support.Polling accuracy in representing Black voters is debated.
What the Harris vs. Trump Polls Got WrongTrump leads Harris in national vote despite polling predictions, which consistently underestimate Republican support.
The Polls Are Right This Time ... Right?Pollsters remain skeptical about trusting current polling data after previous inaccuracies in predicting election outcomes.
Betting odds called the 2024 election better than polls did. What does this mean for the future of prediction markets?Polls underestimated Donald Trump's support in the 2024 election, continuing a recent trend of polling inaccuracies.
Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour On Prediction Markets' Big Night: 'We Even Overtook Pornhub'Prediction markets may provide alternative insights into election outcomes, contrasting sharply with traditional polls.
Should Biden be worried about losing Black voters to Trump? podcastDonald Trump may receive significant Black voter support.Polling accuracy in representing Black voters is debated.
Polymarket, Prediction Betting Markets Vindicated by Trump's Strong ShowingPrediction markets, especially Polymarket, effectively forecasted the 2024 election results, highlighting their reliability over traditional polling methods.
Can We Really Predict the Presidential Election?The wisdom-of-the-crowd effect could improve the accuracy of predicting elections over traditional polling methods.
Polymarket, Prediction Betting Markets Vindicated by Trump's Strong ShowingPrediction markets, especially Polymarket, effectively forecasted the 2024 election results, highlighting their reliability over traditional polling methods.
Can We Really Predict the Presidential Election?The wisdom-of-the-crowd effect could improve the accuracy of predicting elections over traditional polling methods.
Klein: Fretting about election polls? Go do literally anything elsePolling data can be misleading, especially in close elections, and errors are not always random, often favoring one candidate.State-level polls have consistently underestimated support for Trump, questioning the reliability of polling leading up to crucial elections.
So, Can We Trust the Polls?Trusting polls as accurate predictors of election outcomes is problematic.The pandemic's impact on polling accuracy in 2020 remains a critical factor.
Klein: Fretting about election polls? Go do literally anything elsePolling data can be misleading, especially in close elections, and errors are not always random, often favoring one candidate.State-level polls have consistently underestimated support for Trump, questioning the reliability of polling leading up to crucial elections.
So, Can We Trust the Polls?Trusting polls as accurate predictors of election outcomes is problematic.The pandemic's impact on polling accuracy in 2020 remains a critical factor.
Long before Polymarket, election polls and predictions were always a form of popular entertainment with a checkered record of accuracyElection polls are both entertaining and influential, shaping narratives despite their history of inaccuracy.
4 Theories Why Trump Is Winning Big In The Betting MarketsThe D.C. court ruling on election betting raises concerns about potential influence on electoral integrity.
Why Robert F. Kennedy's Jr.'s current presidential polling numbers might not hold up into NovemberThird-party candidate polling momentum can be misleading, not reliable for election outcomes.
Opinion | The Election Is in 10 Weeks. These 3 Things About the Polls Keep Me Up at Night.Polling provides insights but remains an imperfect science with historical inaccuracies affecting predictions.The interest in election polling heightens as Election Day approaches, revealing complexities in accurate forecasting.
Opinion | Ignore the PollsPolls have historically been inaccurate, often favoring one candidate over another.Voters should exercise caution when interpreting polling data ahead of elections.
Why Robert F. Kennedy's Jr.'s current presidential polling numbers might not hold up into NovemberThird-party candidate polling momentum can be misleading, not reliable for election outcomes.
Opinion | The Election Is in 10 Weeks. These 3 Things About the Polls Keep Me Up at Night.Polling provides insights but remains an imperfect science with historical inaccuracies affecting predictions.The interest in election polling heightens as Election Day approaches, revealing complexities in accurate forecasting.
Opinion | Ignore the PollsPolls have historically been inaccurate, often favoring one candidate over another.Voters should exercise caution when interpreting polling data ahead of elections.
Nate Silver critiques the new 538 forecast modelNate Silver critiques the new FiveThirtyEight election forecast model, emphasizing its questionable accuracy and unusual behavior.
The Problem With a Crowd of New Online PollsThe promise of online polling has largely failed, with many companies underperforming since 2012.
The Polls Have Shifted Toward Harris. Is It Real, or Something Else?The accuracy of polling relies heavily on the concept of recalled vote, which has proven inconsistent historically.
Opinion | How Trump Wins (and Harris and the Democrats Blow It)Trump's campaign blunder in defining Kamala Harris nearly cost him victory, highlighting a pattern of self-sabotage yet attaining surprising electoral success.
The Polls Have Shifted Toward Harris. Is It Real, or Something Else?The accuracy of polling relies heavily on the concept of recalled vote, which has proven inconsistent historically.
Opinion | How Trump Wins (and Harris and the Democrats Blow It)Trump's campaign blunder in defining Kamala Harris nearly cost him victory, highlighting a pattern of self-sabotage yet attaining surprising electoral success.