"The November elections bring the possibility of changes to trade, immigration, and fiscal policy in 2025 that could have implications for inflation, labor force growth, GDP growth, and the fiscal deficit," a team of economists at Goldman Sachs, led by Jan Hatzius, write in a new report.
Goldman says a former President Trump win - with a divided government or Republican control of both houses of Congress - would result in a 0.5 percentage point drag on GDP in the second half of 2025 before fading in 2026.
Trump advisers argue that his tax and deregulatory policies will unleash economic growth far beyond that seen in mainstream forecasts like those from Goldman.
If Vice President Kamala Harris wins and the Democrats control the House and Senate, Goldman predicts a 'very slight boost' to GDP between 2025 and 2026.
[
Collection
]
[
|
...
]