""It has nailed every recession since WWII without falsely predicting a downturn. If it is triggered, it may take a while for the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research to confirm it, but we are already in a recession.""
""A swell of headwinds has blown recession fears back into economic thinking. Many economists have raised the probability of a recession happening within the next year, including Zandi himself.""
The Vicious Cycle Index (VCI) indicates that the U.S. economy could already be in a recession, as it has risen more than one percentage point recently. This index, created by Mark Zandi, accurately predicts recessions by measuring unemployment trends. Despite some positive job reports, concerns about recession persist due to low consumer confidence and economic headwinds, including the impact of the Iran war on oil prices. Economists are increasingly worried about potential stagflation as growth and unemployment fears grow.
Read at Fortune
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