The election, however, is not decided by the polls; it's decided by the voters. As a consequence, a lead or deficit of 0.2 points in a polling average is not the difference between whether a candidate is winning or losing, even though it may feel like it.
With the polls so tight, the term leads really does need to be in quotation marks. Yes, the difference between leading or trailing by 0.2 points might feel very significant.
In recent elections, the polls have tended to systematically underestimate or overestimate one side by several percentage points. If that happens this year, either candidate could claim a surprisingly decisive victory.
In North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Michigan, neither candidate even leads by more than two-tenths of a percentage point. Neither can realistically win the presidency without winning at least one of these states.
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