Prediction markets are not the same as election polling data, which surveys respondents about whom they plan to vote for. Rather, they reflect betting odds based on what bettors are willing to pay for a $1 payout.
Despite the assassination attempt against Trump, bettors have not changed their views on the election outcome, indicating a stable perception of the race's dynamics.
Polymarket's odds currently display Harris as a slight favorite to win the presidency at 50%, with Trump closely trailing at 49%, highlighting their unchanged status since mid-September.
A UBS economist noted that political violence generally does not tend to influence election outcomes, reinforcing the stability seen in prediction markets and betting patterns.
[
Collection
]
[
|
...
]