People are not always great at predicting their own behavior. We know what we think and feel in the moment, but are much less effective at guessing how we will respond to different conditions in the future... If you ask voters how they feel today about Donald Trump, trust me they know. Voters' attitudes toward Mr. Trump and his personal character have been long established. But asking voters what they might do in the future given an unprecedented change in circumstances, like a major presidential candidate being sentenced to time in prison, is fraught with uncertainty.
In this type of question, respondents are asked if a certain hypothetical situation or piece of information would make them more or less likely to take a future action... Whenever I see that kind of headline, I wonder if those one-in-10 Republicans were ever voting for Mr. Trump anyway, or were they Never Trump Republicans who had already been leaning to President Biden and were now simply even more firm in their defection?
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